Tuesday, December 9, 2008

About bulls, bears and all the bearish bull


I've been following and analyzing the stock markets for quite some time now and every time it just amazes me how a little bit of bad news can have such a huge impact on the overall picture. It's no wonder consumer confidence and spending is down.
Sure, we ARE in a recession and times ARE bad, but how bad are they really? Watching the news about our economic crisis just makes you want to jump out of the window,... end it all, there's just no hope in sight...
If there's a light at the end of the tunnel it has been turned off due to high energy cost.
But the fact is people are still buying cars, homes and most people still shop for Christmas. Black Friday turned out to be better then last year. Not the way that we like it to be, but it's still happening. Investors and day traders are still buying (volatile) stocks and options etc. The media portraits it as the economy is at a complete stand still. Sure the economy is bad, it's terrible! But it's not ALL doom and gloom...Only if this was shown more regularly in the media, consumer confidence would be a little upwards...not by much, but every little bit counts these days. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the media is unnecessarily making matters worse. So why is the media 'digging the hole deeper'? Media power outlets around the world are continuing to spread fear and anxiety about the condition of the economy.
I think it's because the media lives of off negative news, that what keeps them going. Show something good and they are afraid people will switch channels. How about some fair and balanced news! (No, I'm not insinuating FoxNews)
Remember a couple of months ago when gas prices were through the roof. It gave me a feeling that pretty soon cars and air travel were going to be only for the wealthy in this world since no one would be able to afford fuel. Airlines were merging, a request by many many people to start drilling for oil because soon there is not going to be any oil anymore, that was the reason for the high oil prices, everyone in panic!
Turns out that it all a bunch of bull! That's right, there is so much oil everywhere they don't know what to do with it. Oil tankers are lined up in the middle east waiting to depart it's so crowded. Guess what, the demand staggers a little bit and the price for a barrel of oil is below $50! Now what was all the fuss all about, and I still find it fascinating that no one, not even the 'experts' in the industry (the same people that get paid a ton of dough by giving their 'expert advice') saw this coming, not one!?! The media? "Gas prices down, however economy is continuing to decline". Not one piece of positivity is mentioned. It's all negative, negative and negative. No wonder no one is buying anything anymore. The question is, are you really that worse off then you were last year. Compare the facts and is it financially for YOU really as bad as they say it is. For me personally, yes, last year was better, but it's not all doom and gloom as the media would like it to be. I'm not sleeping in the car in an abandoned parking lot, ...yet.

Disclaimer:

All opinions expressed, trade recommendations/advice on this website are solely of John van der Munnik and are not affiliated with any investment firm or any other organization. You should not make an investment only based using this website VDM Trading for your trading needs without seeking help from your own financial advisor.