Thursday, December 18, 2008

My stock pick for 2009

And the winner is,.. or will be, at least in 2009, Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI ^$0.14)Yes, I know I know, it has cost many investors and day-traders tremendous amounts of money and the overall painted picture is pretty negative, but I'm one of the ones that is still hopeful and see an opportunity here. Before you disregard this pick and comment what an idiot I am for choosing this company as 'pick of the year', please allow me to explain my conclusion.
In my opinion the reason why, after the merger of Sirius and XM, the stock of the new company hasn't gone anywhere is because the merger took way too long. The company is still suffering from the attempt of terrestrial radio to cut this merger off, that it takes time and effort to make this a successful company. During these tough economic times, most companies have trouble staying afloat and Sirius is unlucky enough trying to sprout off season so to speak.
This will change, regardless of what automakers will do, and as you may or may not know, Sirius kind of placed their eggs in this basket on deals with car companies. The auto industry will be the big money maker for Sirius. I'll explain why. Even if the car companies go under, the car landscape will change. If there are no more American cars to buy, people will buy foreign cars, in any scenario people will buy cars, regardless of origin, see my point? With that said the car companies that will dominate their industry then will be attractive to consumers of Sirius. Personally I wouldn't buy a new car that doesn't have this feature, I'm a customer myself since the dawn of satellite radio, and although it cost money every month, I can't live without it.
But with all this there has to be a condition that will be executed very soon in my opinion, and that's the make-up of Sirius management.
Let's face it, Mel Karmazin isn't the most popular guy currently with investors. If he steps down or takes on a different role in the company price per share will rise. Even a couple of pennies increase can make you, depending of course of your initial investment, a lot of money.
And this will happen too, and it will happen soon. So soon that I see this in 2009, even with the economic circumstances. Sure the company is a lot of debt, but I foresee that slowly but surely they will manage to crawl out of this hole. With stock prices this low ($0.14), and with the current outlook, this company has a lot of potential. Mark my words, next year I will write another 'stock pick for 2010' and will look back on Sirius that buy then will be well over $1 a share, an increase of 700%(!)
I say BUY!

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