Saturday, June 20, 2009

Stop Trading, now what happened during the EUR/USD trading week?

If you would've gone (or were) on vacation last week and came back today and checked the current quote for the EUR/USD you wouldn't have noticed hardly any difference. The pair has been trading now about the same price as last week however it was quite a roller coaster ride to get to the about the same point! The USD hasn't done anything really against other major currencies but consolidate. My goodness what a week it's been! I do believe we will see some action the week coming up! In the "Stop Trading" segment of last week I concluded that the Euro was going to fall dramatically and for awhile it seemed like it was heading that direction. It never did, but this will happen, in fact it will happen upcoming week. For those that were fortunate (and smart) enough to sell this pair at the above (or around) the 1.40 level, keep on reading, it will make you happy, and hopefully, alot of money :)



The chart above (click on it for the full picture) is a 'sneak peak' screenshot of my highly super duper confidential crystal ball that is projecting this image against my ceiling that I stare at every night before I go to bed. For anyone that took that seriously and thinks 'I want one of those' , I don't think Forex trading is for you because you're way too into it.
It's actually a snapshot of what happened last week within the EUR/USD pair, captured from my Trading Station with Fibonnaci retracement levels that I added myself... As you can see the pair has been trading almost at the same price as last week, but for anyone, whether you were long or short on this pair it has been a nail biting experience if you were mid term trading. The sellers however are going to be the winner in this scenario, but you can never be sure.

Ladies and gentlemen; Turn on your Bollinger Bands!

Turn this technical indicator on in your trading software if you haven't done so already. This weekend it's the time to do it along side your homework. It's time to look for a breakout in the upcoming week because whatever direction it will break out (and I can almost guarantee it's going down, judging by other technical indicators, but you can never be certain in this business) it will continue to head that direction! Believe it or not I am in the minority here. Most major websites out there are bullish (80% of them speculate the Euro will gain value next week against the USD.)

*Source :
Bullish Financial Trend Analysis Bullish KBC
Bearish Mataf.net Bullish Mizuho
Bullish FXstreet.com


Sentiment
BullishNeutralBearish

Oh dear, 80% against me, but you know what, they've been wrong before (so have I now that I've come to think about it) but it doesn't matter. The majority are probably banking on stronger European equity markets. But I still feel confident about this trade and the reason is the following. It's a mixture of technical as well as fundamental analysis. The strenght of the Euro against the USD was severely tested last week. As it turns out it wasn't strong enough after all to break through the 1.40 barrier, although it pounded on that key resistance levels several times. The economy in the euro zone isn't all rosy at the moment either and is facing tremendous financial obstacles. More investors will turn to the save haven of the USD, in fact I even see it in the long term drop to below 1.30 if not beyond that, but that's a whole other story I'll elaborate on further, and probably will devote a few pages on it :P.


Today another 'trying to break through 1.40' one of many attempts, but failed once again, signaling a downwards spiral next week. I'll keep you posted with my personal trades in the QTU (Quick trade update) segment.. hopefully we can rake in some serious pips next week!
I hate to say this but 'good luck' next weeks trading.. anything can happen to the extreme, you either lose a trade or gain a lot of money with this one!
My advice; sell, sell, sell!

Disclaimer:

All opinions expressed, trade recommendations/advice on this website are solely of John van der Munnik and are not affiliated with any investment firm or any other organization. You should not make an investment only based using this website VDM Trading for your trading needs without seeking help from your own financial advisor.