Saturday, June 6, 2009

Stop Trading, US Dollar gaining value against Euro

Welcome to the fist Stop Trading!! segment on 4xTraderOnline. Forex is a 24 hour market but only closes for a brief moment from Friday 1pm PST (my local time) until Sunday 2 pm PST.
Enough time to keep your mind from trading live and think of a strategy for the upcoming trading week.
In other words STOP TRADING!! for a second an think where your next move is going to go!
Wondering what your next trade will be, are you already in a trade? Is it good to hold on or to cash in? It's the perfect time to do your home work!
I'm currently specializing in the EUR/USD (currently @ 1.3964[9]) pair and anyone that has been following this pair knows that the Euro has gained a tremendous value (over 300 pips!) in the last week. However I see a huge overbought market, thanks to positive economic data released in the same week, investors turning back to the save havens of the US$ and are looking to buy the USD, driving the price up.
Looking at the chart the Euro/US dollar pair has been acting strange, and before bailing out of this article thinking 'dude, what kinda analysis is that' thought please read on and look what I'm talking about!

Click on the above chart for a bigger picture. Not long before closing day this Friday, the price skits up to 1.4266 only a few moments later dropping down blow 1.40, closing @ 1.3964[9]. Meaning the EUR was about to gain value following the trend (Shown in the 'failed to push to 1.43' label) but indeed failed to do, so meaning a pullback to the psychological 1.40.
Now the upcoming week is going to be a very important one regarding global economic movements, especially in the currency markets.
Now here's where it gets interesting. I believe that although the majority was speculating the US economy was going to get worse or not be out of the recession in less then a year, I believe it will recover by the end of the year and because of that I think the dollar index will be stronger. Next week is going to be a tricky trade because skit outs may occur especially Sunday (tomorrow) when Forex markets are known to be unstable. And on top of that, recent market activity has shown it HAS been very unstable. It wouldn't surprise me if the US dollar will trade above 1.40 tomorrow but that may just be an adjustment. If it doesn't trade above 1.40, that alone is a very strong indicator that the value of the Euro will decline to 1.3925 or less.

Final verdict: EUR/USD BEARISH SIGNAL = SELL € SL@ 1.3925

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