Sunday, August 30, 2009

DOW stalling, is recession really over?

OK, enough of that, my analysis were incorrect last week. I'll admit that, but I will say it doesn't happen very often, that's why I'm not afraid to bring it up. In fact, I insist! :P
How else are you going to learn from your trading mistakes. Simply scrap it and moving on as many Forex and general investing books suggest is in my opinion not the right way of trading the markets. Yes, it's not easy. This should be part of your homework. I'm not saying to spend hours and hours to see what you did wrong and try to do better next time, but at least glance over it for a couple of minutes and try to understand the reason why you made a trade that went wrong and what could you do better in the future next time to avoid a similar mistake. It helps, really..
I thought for sure the rally on Wall Street was over, and it was in a sense. It was stalling.
Look at the chart below that should you the DJIA last week; closing @ 9,544.20 -36.43 (-0.38%)

and the EUR/USD, my trade, (weekly, 1h candlestick)

any similarity? And by stalling I meant the DOW failing to make new closing highs. I predicted the DOW closing lower, what did not happen. And the reason why is beyond me (yes that's possible), investors probably shopping for bargain deals in the financial sector, doesn't change the overall picture. Now most analysts say the recession is over, well let's hope so because it has been a hell of a ride. But not so fast. Tuesday CNBC released an article that caught many traders it's attention "Economy In Much Worse Shape Than Expected: White House", and I happen to agree with it. As many are hopeful the worst is finally (!) behind us doesn't mean it actually is. Unemployment is still very high and is likely to remain that level for quite some time. This recession wasn't like any other, it shaped fundamental chances that most companies took to cut cost. That and the tremendous spending (that almost seems completely uncontrolled) is exactly what's preventing a full recovery the way most people are used to.
Looking a head, given that August is notorious for being a quite trading month, the USD will be probably sold off again next week, meaning my trade (EUR/USD) will probably end up higher although EUR CPI data, which will be released tomorrow can possibly toss things around lower (good buy op?)

US Dollar index below with indicators RSI, Stoch and MACD, now at 78,32

for now, I'm waiting (and banking) on tomorrow trading session. Depending on that I might even be bullish on EUR/USD. I'm also going to scout for other pairs to trade, likely the JPY, a lot of volatility is expected from Japan in the upcoming trading week.

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