Thursday, October 22, 2009

How about that Euro heh?

I'm currently in a trade right now that involves the EUR/USD. Believe it or not I'm short this pair. I entered @ 1.50 because I just can't believe that the either the Euro is SO overvalued or the USD is SO undervalued. When I was in the middle of installing and configuring this website last week I saw in the corner of my eye that the pair was rising and rising thinking it was almost impossible to reach 1.50, and if it did, I was the first one to shorten it at that price.

chart102209

Where is this going to go? Up to what point is too much too much? I've been studying and researching up and I basically get two fundamental analysis that totally go against each other. One of them speculating the tie has turned and a reversal is in sight (mainly due to the US economy stalling), the other saying the rally isn't over and already has targets set at 1.52 or higher. One thing I found that technical analysis is useless at this moment and direction lies in the hands of fundamental traders. Well if that's the case I'm betting against the severely overvalued Euro. One thing I think is for sure and that is that the monetary policy, in the US as well as in the EURO zone is off. Left unchanged by the ECB it becomes more difficult for countries in the EURO zone to export. I personally see a decline in value of the Euro. The reason why I'm currently short this pair. As for the USD/JPY a long position is probably in sight for me.

Disclaimer:

All opinions expressed, trade recommendations/advice on this website are solely of John van der Munnik and are not affiliated with any investment firm or any other organization. You should not make an investment only based using this website VDM Trading for your trading needs without seeking help from your own financial advisor.