Friday, November 6, 2009

US Dollar continues to be weak across the board

Call this the weirdest chart you've ever seen. It's the most traded currency in the world against a basket of all other major currencies summarized in the graph below.

Interestingly enough, the trend continues, according to the analyst interviewed by CNBC (see video). With the US economy climbing out of the hole does this seem a realistic analogy? I really don't think so and I know I'm going against the majority of 'experts' out there that speculate the US Dollar index will continue to drop. But it doesn't make sense to me. Simply put it this way.. the lower the USD the weaker the global economy. The USA, whether you like it or not, is still a major key player in the world economy. Depreciating the value of it's currency can only hurt the world economy since goods will become too expensive to buy for the US. China's economy is booming but only with the help of it's major exporter, the US. With key interest rates still the same to accelerate growth (which is in my opinion a fantastic way to get the US into recovery mode; thanks Bernanke) it WILL rise in value the next turn the rates are on the ballot, like 1%. If that happens the (global) markets will correct themselves and will see a uprise in the USD index.

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