Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Forex trading: the EUR/USD outlook

I'm actually awaiting a long entry point on this pair. Take a look at the chart below.

eurusd011310

In it, I drew some fantastic technical lines (ahum). The sloped line indicates a upwards trend and the horizontal line indicates a support level for this pair. Now this trade is going to be a swing trade with a weekly time frame in mind. The reason for this trade setup is the VIX (measures volatility in the stockmarket, the lower the VIX level, the more attractive it becomes to buy riskier foreign assets that bring a higher return, in other words traders sell US dollars to buy other currencies to invest abroad where there's a higher yield on their investment) below is a chart of the USD/EUR (reverse of the EUR/USD).

vix011310

As you can see, the lower the VIX value the lower the USD/EUR (the higher the EUR/USD level is or will be. Since there is no substantial news on the horizon yet until the beige book, this analysis suggests a further upward trend of the EUR/USD. In the upcoming hours I'm going to try to find a cheap entry point to go long on this pair targeting 1.46 and beyond, depending on how strong the uptrend will be.

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