Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Dow Jones likely to close lower tomorrow.

According to my analysis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is likely to close lower tomorrow. What a streak it has been! Eight days in a row nothing but gains, but as the classical saying goes; "what goes up, must come down". Looking at the chart for the Dow below;
Especially the intra day chart today looked kind of choppy, Dow barely closing in positive territory at the end of the day. I think this is a classic pattern, the bears are coming in, and aside from the MACD (in the chart above) what we need to pay attention to is the RSI, which has been in overbought territory now for a few days. Now, how am I going to approach this trade using options? I've been having my eye on the DIA (ETF spider for the Dow), first wanting to play an Put position, but after further research I think it's better to do a Call since I don't want to do anything on margin at the moment, let alone options spreads (which I will dedicate a whole section on on my blog in the future because I'm just fascinated by it :)
Like I said before, I think I will just stick with a regular Call (no end) options position, a really fast one this time expiring this Friday actually.
This is what the DIA looks like now; as you can see it's not much different from the $INDU. (above)
I am going with an 'In The Money' Call option @ 1.2175 paying a $1.04 per contract. I don't expect a huge drop, around 50 points. The lower the price of the DIA, the closer it will get to my 1.2175 thus making a profit. I'm still trying to figure if there is a way to visualize this trade setup, because it can get very interesting until Friday.

Let me know what you think..

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