Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Approaching the Euro trade

Just as the Wall Street Journal wrote an article two days ago about the Euro steadily rising to $1.50 according to some professional analysts, the opposite happened instead. Aggressive selling of the Euro against the dollar occurred due to worries of the European debt crisis.
I've been monitoring this trade closely from the beginning of the month (read previous posts) and speculated that sooner or later the currency pair was bound to drop (finding a bottom), and found it interesting that most investors were so optimistic about the Euro, even though Portugal, Greece, Spain, Ireland and Italy are in some serious trouble. It didn't make any sense to me, and indeed the 'expected' (to me) happened. A little later then anticipated but it happened. The value of the Euro dropped over 1.35% in a matter of a week. High volatility means an increase in risk, but also an increase in money making opportunities.
Now is the time to look for a market bottom. A sharp plunge like that likely means an major upswing is brewing. And in a trade like this, like with any trade you want to get in when the price is low.
If indeed the majority of the analysts are bullish on this trade, and given the fact that the US Dollar continues to weaken and a possibility of a downgrade in the credit rating of the S&P from AAA status. Also, most technical indicaters are hinting towards a strong buy, it's time to buy the Euro, or take a bullish position in the FXE trust. (if 1.50 is a target, 1.42 seems a bargain to me)

The Elliot Wave seems to forming the 4th wave, with a target of 1.45.

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