Monday, September 26, 2011

All eyes on Europe this trading week.

VIX up and the Dow Jones up; trouble in Europe on the horizon. Never a good combination on what is about to happen in Europe this week. The Euro funds are in peril, but it turns out that there is a plan. There is always a plan. But plans never turn out the way people would like. And that's exactly what I am afraid of when it comes to the Euro zone. I have always been very bearish when it comes to the European economy and the reason for that is the over inflated Euro. In a nutshell; European goods and services are just too expensive and they find it hard to compete with the US Dollar and emerging markets such as China and Brazil. This week is D-Week for Europe; now something has to happen. Enough with the bailouts. It's time for a stronger economy and every European nation agrees that it can't go on like this the way it is now. For me the bottom line is ETFs that track European equities and the Euro.
The European currency is going to drop like a brick if lawmakers can't come to an agreement about the bailouts. The fact that this is not more in the news amazes me. It's a pretty big thing. If it happens it will mark the beginning of Euro being eliminated from the currency playing field. A great money making opportunity if you are on the right side of the fence. High risk, but worth it.
Where does the FXE stand right now;

Now forget the technicals for a second and look at the chart, especially the selling volume at the last few weeks. I've seen many charts like this before and one of two things always seem to happen, either it goes up by a tremendous amount or down. And when I say up or down, it's in the double digit range. This is a tough play I will admit. Remember, not long ago (a year) the Euro was trading at the 1.19 levels, so it's very well possible that will happen again if the lawmakers are unsuccessful to make a deal. Think about it, it's heading pretty much towards the 1.20's levels to find support. This is a difficult trade, but I'm always up for a challenge - this is my mid term trade. (In the long run I think the Euro is pretty much doomed) and the reason I say this is because I think the Euro will spike up a bit before it totally runs off a cliff. Here's my reason why; if it was indeed all heading down, the currency would have been already doing so - and fast. The fact that it is still trading around these levels with this kind of news coming up is an indication to me that most investors and traders are still holding on to the currency and have hopes for the mid term future. Trying to buy into a cheap price before it spikes up again. It already moved over a 100 pips in the last 4 hours of this writing indicating buying strength. A little over half of the investors are bullish on the Euro on most Forex websites. The time to buy into the Euro is now, I see it trading well over 1.40 by the end of the year until another crash (the final one) will happen.


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