Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Time to short the VXX? (VIX)

The volatility index (VIX) dropped significantly today because of a better economic outlook. It's hovering in the lower 50, but is in my opinion still severely blown out of proportion. Time for a $48 put option? Open interest spiked to 13k making it the largest cluster around this ETN.
My judgement is based on the fact that the VIX has been around 20(!) for a long time (May, June - when I gave my buy recommendation), in my opinion with even more economic turmoil in the world than today. It baffles me why it spiked up to almost 60. Mainly Europe was the cause of this, but that seemed to have settled a bit as well.
The RSI in the chart below indicates it has been in the 'overbought' territory for way too long.

Time to short? I think so. Feel free to add any thoughts on this one.

Disclaimer:

All opinions expressed, trade recommendations/advice on this website are solely of John van der Munnik and are not affiliated with any investment firm or any other organization. You should not make an investment only based using this website VDM Trading for your trading needs without seeking help from your own financial advisor.