Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Why the Euro is doomed.

Great, Europe has reached a deal. That still doesn't make things right though. The overbought, over inflated, overly speculated Euro is in trouble and that's a fact. A deal has been reached to make the banks, top investors, bond holders and multinationals happy. But what about the average Joe. Let me tell you something about the average Joe in Europe; the average Joe in Europe hates the Euro and wishes the currency was never introduced over a decade ago.
It's a big mess for the 'regular' people of Europe. I've been reading up on several European newspapers and pretty much all comments that are posted in reply to the European bailout say the same; "Get the Euro out of our country and convert it back to the way it was!" Most people in Europe absolutely hate and despise the currency. Of course it's not that simple anymore and it will take some time before it gets too out of hand, and even banks for example start to wonder if the Euro was such a good idea. Once again, the higher the Euro trades (a good benchmark is the EUR/USD) the more expensive the exports from Europe are. With China, Brazil and other emerging markets laughing on the sideline loaded with tons of cash, Europe is slowly but surely walking further and further on the path of Doom. A united European monetary system was and always has been a big joke, even since the beginning - and I have always stand by this standpoint and always will be. A united European currency was originally designed to offer a stronger economic backbone to the US Dollar, which was at the time more valuable than the Euro. And at the same time be also more competitive against the Japanese Yen. Whether or not the leaders of the European Union at the time had China, Brazil, India and other emerging markets in mind I don't know, but it certainly doesn't look like it now.
The problem is something that will affect us all, no matter where you are in the world. If the Euro fails it will drag other countries with them, and as far as I know a second major recession like the last one will be devastating to the US and other countries.
Now what would be a solution? The solution in my opinion is not a pretty one but it would be something that works. The Euro is a failed experiment that needs to be converted back to the way it was before this culture destroying currency came to light. However it needs to be done in stages. Slowly but surely the Euro needs to be phased out. Stronger economic nations should maintain the Euro while the weaker ones phase out the currency, starting with the countries with the weakest GDP. This whole process that would eventually phase out the strongest economic member of the Euro-zone of the Euro currency, would take about two decades if handled well.
Each individual country should have its own economy and their own financial responsibility.

Well, that was a nice long intro, how about we get to the actual trade; the EUR/USD
Forgive my crappy handwriting, just trying to get my point across :)
Now earlier I discussed some fundamental issues with the Euro, now it's time to mention some technicals. From a technical standpoint the RSI is in fairly neutral territory. (yes it says 'steady RSI' for those who can't read my writing) - keep in mind this is the chart for the past 30 days. I usually post charts 3 months and longer. Now see where I pointed at the 'volume' and 'downwards pressure'? (yes that's what I wrote), this is something that intrigues me. High volume and a stalling price. This usually indicates a downwards spiral and is almost as common as the usual 'head and shoulders' pattern, meaning we are at the 'head' part in this chart. As of right now the Euro is trading towards the 1.40 level, when it does cross over this line it would be a good idea to see if you can get a good entry point to sell with a target set to 1.37 or less.

Any suggestions regarding this trade or previous comments about the Euro is greatly appreciated!

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