Friday, February 8, 2013

Is Netflix (NFLX) too overbought?

Yesterday's rally of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) really made me wonder what lies ahead for this company when it comes to its short- mid term stock price. The surge was caused by strong earnings and reports that Netflix is now in about 25% of American households and what not, but the bottom line is that Netflix is way too overbought.

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Option traders on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the International Securities Exchange (ISE), as well as the on the NASDAQ OMX (PHLX) caused the security's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.18 to rank in the 81st percentile of its annual range!
In plain English; more puts than calls are bought at a very fast rate, which can only imply that they are betting against this stock.

I see their point, forget this ridiculous price movement on the chart above for a second, on a fundamental level; how can any stock in this highly competitive sector do so well? I don't get it! Aren't there so many other companies out there that offer the next to the same thing? (companies by the way all seem to creep up on Netflix faster than you think).
It's time to short, buying puts - absolutely. I'm thinking this over this weekend, but I'm seriously debating whether or not I should short it. Nothing against Netflix, I still believe it's a great company with great potential, but a spike like this only shows it's overbought and right now Netflix is trading well over its company value. If I short this stock and when is announced on my twitter account (@VDMtrading).

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