Sunday, April 14, 2013

Euro outlook for the upcoming week with new trading strategy explained

The Euro spiked last Friday afternoon surging to over 1.31 suggesting that we could see the EUR/USD trading well beyond that this upcoming trading week. However, there's recent economic news that is holding me back when it comes to going long this currency pair. 

The news that Cyprus is not going to get any more money from the EU or the IMF, which has me wondering... what's the point? Obviously Cyprus needs more money. It's senseless, €10 billion euros to 'hold them over'. The fact that Cypriots who have saved more than €100,000 will lose a part of their savings is absolute ludicrous! The banks are literally stealing the money in Cyprus and nobody's going to jail. No wonder the Cypriots are upset, I would be too. The Euro zone as it is right now is one big mess, the euro should never have been introduced if you ask me, but that is a whole other story.

What baffles me the most is the fact that the Euro keeps rising in value against the US Dollar, it makes exports from Europe more expensive for the rest of the world, I still believe its actual value should be somewhere hovering around $1.10 - 1.15 at most. 

I foresee a very bearish outlook for the EUR/USD, take a look at the technical chart below, as always you can click on the chart for a bigger version:

I'm using a new strategy that includes the Fibonacci Speed resistance fan that begins at the highest point and ends at the lowest point (bear trade, a bull trade would be the opposite), in conjunction with the RSI and the stochastic - you can see on the (day) chart which values I use. (the moving averages are delayed anyway so I find myself using them less and less, don't mind them in this chart).

It's premise is pretty simple, if both oscillators are in overbought territory (which they are), and the currency pair is about to trade in a new color it triggers a sell signal for me - in this case that would be right now, factoring in the bearish fundamental news it even a higher probability. A reason why I'm posting this today!

We'll see what happens, I'm looking to at least a 100 pip profit this week. If you have any questions or comments about my new trading strategy, feel free to comment below.

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All opinions expressed, trade recommendations/advice on this website are solely of John van der Munnik and are not affiliated with any investment firm or any other organization. You should not make an investment only based using this website VDM Trading for your trading needs without seeking help from your own financial advisor.