Friday, May 17, 2013

5 reasons to short the Euro

For a brief moment I was bullish on the Euro yesterday. That was after the fact it broke through 1.29 and looked like it was trending upwards. It failed. The EUR/USD had a tough time to remain above 1.29 and soon sank below that level. Here are 5 reasons why you should short the Euro.

I did some further research and noticed the 'head and shoulder' pattern which automatically indicates a bearish trend. 1.30 is an important pivot point in my chart for next week that's for sure, the currency pair keeps zig-zagging over it.

The first reason why you should short the Euro is because of horrible GDP data that came in from the Euro zone. Weak numbers all across the board pretty much. Plenty of news about this on Bloomberg, CNBC etc.

The second one is the recent rate cuts by the ECB, the ECB has always been a little stubborn when it comes to cutting the interest rates. Now that they did, it suggests that even the ECB is realizing that the Euro is over inflated. Also, short term future predictions about the European economy isn't all that rosy either.

Third is Japan, you may wonder what this has to do with the Euro but Japan is trying to weaken the Yen in order to make their exports more attractive to foreign buyers and they've been successful. The Yen has been trading at an all time high since years, over 100 Yen - this increases the overall demand for dollars and that shows up in the US Dollar Index, now showing over 83 points.

The fourth one the charts. Technicals that I've found do not only include the 'head and shoulder' pattern (major bearish indicator), but also an overall downward trend, also the fact that the pair has been unable to break through the 1.30 levels for some time now. I was going to include a bunch of charts, but I assume you can see it for yourself in your trading station, if not they're readily available everywhere.

Last but not least, I still stand by the statement that I've been making since 2008 that the Euro is horribly over inflated. Since its inception, prices for goods and services have become more expensive in all European countries - this 'sudden' inflation boost cannot be good for any economy. Fix: slash interest rates even more so the Euro can trade around the 1.10 1.20 (at most!) range.

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