Friday, August 9, 2013

Good time to short the EUR/USD?

If you have been following the EUR/USD currency pair, you've probably noticed the pattern like the one in the renko chart above. Although trying very hard, it looks like it has trouble pushing above the psychological 1.34 mark. In fact, as of this time of writing the pair dropped around 30 pips from that level. Is this the beginning of a new downward trend? The already over-inflated Euro ballooned up even more during the past couple of days, indicating to me that more bullish speculators and hedgers are at play than the normal 'natural' market movements that usually affect prices. Before I come to the conclusion that it's a good time to short the Euro I look at a few other indicators before I click the 'sell' button in my trading program. These other indicators tell me how the overall market is performing. One of them is the VIX, the volatility index, a.k.a panic index that shows how much fear is in the markets right now. At the moment, this 'fear index' is hovering around an all year low (12.73). The VIX is an index that mainly reflects the US markets (S&P 500), in Europe however it's not all that rosy. It makes sense to closely monitor any (financial) news coming from Europe when you trade the EUR/USD, and that's exactly what I've been doing. From an economic perspective Europe is one big mess compared to the US, although recently better data is coming from Europe but that's mainly because better news from China. You may wonder why is the Euro so much stronger than the US dollar, you have to keep in mind that there's (still) way more US dollars in circulation in the world than Euros - of course this also affects the US dollar index - which is the second indicator I consult before I make any sort of trading decision when it comes to the EUR/USD. The US dollar index hovers still nicely around the 81 mark. Furthermore, most analysts expect the US dollar to rise again after a seven week low due to Fed uncertainty; and this is exactly what I wanted to hear. It makes complete sense. Even though theoretically the Euro should be trading around 1.17 to reflect a more 'healthy' market balance, we're still far from it. But I think this is a great opportunity, just like how it was in February of this year when the EUR/USD traded over 1.36 - short and stay short! 

My target is 1.3250. 

-Happy trading!

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