Thursday, June 30, 2016

Are the markets stabilizing? Reconsidering some trades.

Even though the Brexit/EU negotiations are still a mess - and ongoing, it seems to me the financial markets have somewhat stabilized. The Dow Jones gained almost 300 points yesterday even amid high Brexit anxiety. Is this a turning point? Should we be looking for cheap stocks and other bargains? If that's indeed the case it happened much quicker than I thought. The Dow only tumbled last Friday and this Monday, 2 trading days of uncertainty, but after what happened yesterday I think we might be in for a rebound! That's actually pretty interesting since the GBP/USD is still trading around 30 year low levels. The dollar index was not that much affected in hindsight. It definitely shot up a bit after the news that Britain was going to leave the EU, but not as much as I thought, in fact it the dollar index seems to even out a bit at the moment. So what should we look out for? 

Do we have to reverse all the trades that I suggested immediately after post-Brexit (which were very profitable!). Perhaps we should reconsider some trades like the GBP/USD:

According to the Fibonacci retracement levels on the chart above anything around 1.3570 and above should signal a further upswing. Will it trade pre-Brexit levels? Highly unlikely in my opinion, but in the same token it's trading a bit on the low side right now. Fundamentally Britain still has a strong economy right now, Brexit or not. I actually may be a short term buyer!


The infamous EUR/USD! It shows a similar pattern as in the GBP/USD, but this one is slightly different. At the moment it faces a lot of selling pressure, as you compare the two charts, where the GBP/USD is gaining ground, the EUR/USD is doing quite the opposite. Of course this pair is not only affected by the Brexit, but also other major factors that are going on inside the EU relative to the US dollar. This currency pair may be sliding under 1.10 in the short term.

The Oil Trade:

Oil continues to fascinate me these days. It's having a hard time remaining around $50, and for good reasons, like oversupply and a stronger dollar. I'm definitely going to short oil either today or tomorrow, depending on how volatile this commodity is and if I can see a good entry point. No way I'll be buying, not even mid- long term.

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