Friday, March 14, 2014

A golden opportunity?

For months there has been a downward trend for the precious metal gold. However, an important recovery happened over the last couple of weeks which improved the technical conditions significantly. Even better, my chart signals a whole new upwards trend. This offers great opportunities for trend traders. Allow me to further explain the positive outlook.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Ukraine crisis directly reflects the USD/RUB and Russian ETF's

Sometimes market volatility caused by geopolitical events, like the one we see now with the crisis in Crimea, Ukraine, can reveal clear market direction and thus offer money making opportunities. For instance, the Russian Ruble already started to lose its value when Russia invaded Crimea, Ukraine. The Russian stock market crashed as well, since investors feared possible sanctions would have a negative impact and pulled out their investments. Obviously, it's affecting the Russian ETF's (RSX for example) and Russia's overall economy negatively. Using the Russian invasion to make money? Well, you simply make money in the markets after obvious reactions;  what is likely to happen when a country invades another country, etc. Sanctions and isolation would be disastrous for Russia's economy, is Crimea worth it?  Here's a forex pair I rarely trade: the USD/RUB. Buying the USD/RUB was a good idea a few days ago for instance. At this time of writing there's reports about Putin pulling border troops out, though not yet confirmed by Ukraine, guess what; the USD/RUB shows it. Since it's not definite, and there's still a lot more to be done, it reflects by not drastically falling. It's an immediate reflection of what is going on currently with the crisis in the Ukraine. Take a look at the chart below:

The USD/RUB spiked when reports came in Russia had invaded the Ukraine. Traders and investors dumped the Ruble. As soon as there was news the Russian troops would back down, the Ruble gained strength again against the USD. The worse the situation gets in the Ukraine, the stronger the USD/RUB will react. The opposite is true as well, if things start to settle in the Ukraine it's likely that you will see a stronger Russian Ruble. So, the better or worse the news, the stronger the market's reaction. Well see how this plays out. I think the main indicator during this fiasco is the USD/RUB. Keep an eye on this pair if you want to jump into any trades involving Russia. Normally, this is a pretty volatile pair, but a geopolitical issue like this may make this an easy trade. I think (hope) that Russia won't escalate this matter any further, especially after reports came out that Russian troops were pulling back. Therefore I'm short the USD/RUB (36.400), and see the pair trading around 'normal' levels (34 / 35 range) again soon. Consequently, I'm bullish on the RSX ETF, though I haven't made a final trade since this ETF is not as quickly to respond to major events in Russia, unlike foreign exchange. For a list of Russian ETF's, take look here.

Friday, February 7, 2014

Emerging markets are crashing, reason to panic?

 The financial markets, in particularly the ones of Argentina and Turkey, are squeaking and creaking on all sides. The Argentinian government had to give up its support for the peso because dollar reserves were getting exhausted. Consequently, the peso took a nosedive. In Turkey, the same thing happened with the Turkish Lira. Other emerging markets also came under pressure, a sell-off wave hit India, China, Russia, South Africa, Brazil and other markets. What's the reason behind all this?

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Chinese banking pyramid scheme about to falter?

Image used with permission from Pixabay.
From China, the second largest economy in the world, comes mixed and often disturbing news. The latest macroeconomic figures indicate a declining growth of the world's largest trading nation. The growth GDP in 2013 was exactly the previously predicted 7.7 %, as in 2012. But this was 10 % the year before, so a much lower growth rate. Many analysts believe that growth in the coming year will slow down further to 7.4 %. This would be the lowest rate since 1990.

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Top 5 must have stock trading apps for iphone

All the must have stock trading apps for iphone or ipod listed right here. Information is key, as any trader knows. The right information at the right time, from your own reliable source, can mean a succesful trade. Most self respecting financial news agencies have apps in Apple's app store (some paid, some free) which will show you instantly the financial articles that are related to your portfolio, right in the palm of your hand, no matter where you are. I took screenshots with my ipod of the apps I use the most frequently myself. Here they are in no particular order;

Monday, January 20, 2014

RSH new all time low. Is this RadioShack's final year?

Forget the 52 week low, RadioShack corporation's stock (RSH) is trading at an all time low, and will probably continue to decline further this year due to their old fashioned business model. Don't get me wrong, my local RadioShack is a great place to go. I'm usually the only customer in the store, and checking out all the gadgets while striking up a conversation with the sales person is a great way to kill some time when your car is getting an oil change around the corner. The problem is that it doesn't make them any money. The occasional battery, gadget or cell phone that's sold isn't really a big deal compared to the competition. To be honest, I've never been a big fan of RadioShack's stock because of its business model which is continuing to suffer under the 'modern' competition. In fact, it seems like people just take advantage of RadioShack's expertise (You've got questions, we've got answers - oh, and then you buy it elsewhere, where it's cheaper - and you don't get bothered about buying a wireless phone, an overly expensive battery, or something else you don't need). I believe RadioShack's days are numbered, its stock is trading at an all time low (52 week high/low is $2.02/4.36) and there's a good chance it will get a lot worse for them this year. I think soon we can see the stores closing 'Blockbuster' style. Let's have a look at the stock chart.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Is this the year for social media? Lets look at SOCL

As social media becomes more and more prominent in our lives, it may be time to take a closer look at the index that tracks the overall performance of social media. Of course I'm talking about the $SOCL index, which is trading around an all time high at the moment. Apparently, some social media companies, like Twitter, are shooting for the stars and convinced their investors that it's worth its share price at the moment, mainly due to the 'big plans' ahead this year. It's a fact that more and more people use sites and apps like foursquare, reddit, facebook, flickr... the list goes on and on. Of course some apps or sites are less popular than others, or some social media companies may even lose users or go out of business, but I'm talking about social media as a whole - an average if you will. The way I see it, it's time to invest in social media! Let's take a look at the chart of the index that tracks it all, the SOCL chart!


All opinions expressed, trade recommendations/advice on this website are solely of John van der Munnik and are not affiliated with any investment firm or any other organization. You should not make an investment only based using this website VDM Trading for your trading needs without seeking help from your own financial advisor.